Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna

Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in world, and those occurring insular Caribbean particularly vulnerable. Climate change represents a significant threat for region small islands like Jamaica. Using Hellshire Hills protected area Jamaica, simple model was developed to project future abundance of arthropods lizards based on current sensitivities climate variables derived from rainfall temperature records. The abundances 20 modelled taxa were predicted more often by than temperature, but both found have strong impacts arthropod lizard abundance. Most projected decrease end century under drier warmer conditions. Where an increase low emissions scenario, this reduced or reversed high scenario. validation process showed that, even population, there reasonable skill predicting its annual variability. Results study show that can be used identify vulnerability similar sites effects shifting and, extension, their conservation needs.